SMM field visits to copper bar companies What is the status of the copper bar market?

The company's real estate industry data shows that 2023 is turning from a trough to a good year, but most companies are not optimistic about the development of the copper bar industry in 2023. Although the real estate industry data shows that 2023 is turning good from the trough, but from the actual situation of copper rod enterprises, most enterprises are not optimistic about the development trend of copper rod in 2023. Specifically, the main aspects are divided into the following.

Ⅰ, real estate various stimulus policies have not been conducted to the copper rod market

Since 2022, a variety of housing stimulus policies have been launched, the central bank repeatedly lowered interest rates, but the amount of real estate promotion still has not been conducted to the copper rod market. According to SMM's understanding, plumbing, low-end sanitary products, refrigeration accessories and other products had a prosperous scene in February, but most of them were caused by the accumulation of orders in the year before, and after entering March, the orders appeared to shrink significantly. Originally February-March as the traditional peak consumption season for copper rods, in early March that is, orders fell back, the phenomenon of the peak season is not prosperous, which also has a greater impact on the psychological expectations of copper rod market participants.

Ⅱ, "go to China" trend is gradually emerging

According to customs data, China's current trade volume with the United States has been unable to enter the top three, mainly for two reasons. On the one hand, the United States for Southeast Asia tariffs, to be much lower than the tariffs imposed on China, making many orders transferred to Southeast Asia; on the other hand, the United States is constantly strengthening cooperation with Central and Southern European markets, many enterprises in the European region for the purchase of production equipment has increased. According to SMM, some copper bar companies have even received plans to relocate their downstream factories abroad, which means that copper bar companies will face the threat of a significant drop in orders if they do not set up factories overseas.

Ⅲ, copper bar industry "internal volume" increasingly intense

Copper rod market production capacity has been a serious surplus of about 1 million tons, enterprises due to seize market share, and constantly pull down the market processing fees, making the copper rod business pressure is increasing, but if you do not accept the increasingly low processing fees, you will face the risk of losing customers. According to although the copper rod market competition has been fierce for a long time, but some high-end enterprises are not involved in its, order autonomy to choose a stronger, but according to SMM understanding, some high-end enterprises began to pull downstream enterprises at low prices, making the entire copper rod market within the degree of volume intensified.

To sum up, both the domestic demand, or overseas "to China" impact, will make the copper bar enterprises in 2023 to bear greater pressure, is expected to 2023 copper bar enterprises annual production remains at about 2 million tons, difficult to have incremental.